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Lottery Project, Part 1

by Sean

### Introduction

In March of 2007, the MegaMillions jackpot rose to a record-level $390 million. At the time, I was on vacation visiting my father in Georgia. He asked me a question that most people were probably asking themselves at the time: What would I do with $390 million?

This question sparked a chain of thoughts in my mind. Being a self-proclaimed psychic, winning the lottery was always a topic of discussion… but for some reason, when my father asked me that question, the jackpot felt real and within reach. Not just an idle idea in the back of my head - it was now tangible. I’m not sure why I had this reaction; I suppose it was just the right thought at the right time.

I started playing MegaMillions after I returned home from my vacation, and my thoughts started to seriously tackle the problem of: How could I win?

### Modern Understanding

Before we get into the meat of things, let’s at least outline what the modern understanding of the lottery is. The basic idea of the game is that a lot of people put up a little bit of money, and one or more people are chosen at random to take home the large sum. The game profits by controlling how much the winners receive - usually leaving a large chunk for public education and taxes. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.

This “random choice” is different for each game, but usually it consists of a container with lottery balls inside of it, that are shuffled around, and automatically chosen by a machine. This eliminates any human interaction and potential for cheating. The machines are inspected before the drawing, and measurements are performed to ensure they don’t favor any particular number over the rest. We have to be fair!

Our modern understanding is that there is no systematic way to win the lottery. But shhh… don’t tell that to the thousands of products out there that proclaim there is :-P. I’ve never bought a “lottery cheating system”, because I’m far to cynical when it comes to salesmen who intentionally misunderstand basic probability and statistics in order to take advantage of their customers :-P. I love probability. I love statistics. I love correct math :-).

Statistics and probability are very useful and the calculations are beautiful and correct. But if that’s so… how could I ever hope to win the lottery? The very math disciplines that I claim to understand and appreciate are the same ones that say the lottery is a random system, and it’s impossible to win at a higher rate than anyone else.

Well… I found a way. Theoretically.

### Randomness Doesn’t Exist

Statistics and probability are just mathematical systems - they have no authority over how reality behaves, and can accept no critiquing from reality. Numbers are numbers. It’s humans, who interpret the numbers, that put the meaning behind the math. That’s where I find fault.

Our human interpretation of the numbers is that reality is capable of being random. Given a random reality, we can calculate the odds of a certain outcome… and since our reality is random (according to our human interpretation), there is no way to predict or control the outcome. It’s important to distinguish between the math formulas - which say nothing about reality - and the human interpretation - which states that we are measuring a random reality.

However, if this idea of randomness doesn’t actually EXIST in reality, then our interpretation of statistics and probability is completely wrong. The math is still correct - the numbers just mean something else.

I’ve done a lot of thinking and writing on the subject of randomness in my blog. You can read the major posts here: Randomness Doesn’t Exist, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3. There are a lot of good counter-points in the comments as well, so be sure to read how others have responded, and how I responded to them. I continue to debate the idea in my head, but I feel my logic is solid, and the evidence in reality supports my conclusions.

### Early Results

My early results (from March 2007 - June 2007) were very positive. I won smaller prizes on the MegaMillions (with odds around 1 in 43,000), and I was boasting a healthy profit $55+ with my scratch off tickets. In fact, on one day I won $70 on two tickets, back to back. I video taped the entire experience, from start to finish, here: I Won Again with Video. My success motivated my father to give it a shot as well, which he documented here: Video.

My early results were awesome, and they helped solidify my beliefs about randomness. I’ve shattered the odds, and modern statistics and probability cannot explain my results. Plus I won some cash that helped pay my bills :-). Hurray reality!

Unfortunately, my results did dip during the summer. Please continue reading by clicking here: Lottery Project, Part 2.

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